26/01/2010 by info.

Well firstly growth of 0.1% for the last quarter of 2009 is a preliminary estimate, based on 40% of the returns and experience has shown that the actual figure has been within 0.2% of the figure initially announced. So we could STILL be in recession. The growth figure is still extremely small so in essence the economy is broadly flat.

Interest rates also rise at the end of a recession, inflation is above the governments target and so interest rate rises is inevitable.

So if you do need to borrow the cost of doing so will increase, and of course we have not even started paying back the cost of this recession and government will want to increase the tax paid on your profits.

The possibility of a double dip cannot be discounted if the government squeezes the economy too soon.

In a war situation often the hand-to-hand combat may end but there are still plenty of explosives in the field ready to harm the unexpected passer-by.

The same is true in business today, when a recession ends it shows that demand is returning, and sales are likely to increase, profit is likely to increase and business values will recover and demand for buying businesses will return to traditional levels. But what does that mean in reality?

Imagine if your sales increased overnight by 50%, what would that mean to your business from a logistical point of view?

Perhaps you might need additional stock, new machinery, have to employ additional members of staff, need bigger premises, all of which needs money to fund it, your businesses resources have been depleted, and the banks are still risk averse, they are not interested in funding your speculative growth. What can happen is that your business may paradoxically run out of money and fail.

So planning and cash flow forecasting is increasingly important. Growth without access to funds is a dangerous thing.

You’ve probably heard the saying “cash is king.” Now you know what it means and why so many business owners take it to heart. If your demand in your business sector is increasing, don’t fall victim to your sales success by running out of cash.

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02/10/2009 by info.

There are many businesses who will be looking to the future with relief that they have survived the recession however they may, in the next financial year, have to face paying higher business rates.

Business rates are revalued every 5 years and business pay a multiplier of the rateable value of the property. So for the last 4 years a business has been paying tax based on 2005 commerical property rental values.

But these rates in April 2010 will be revalued and will be based on rents in April 2008, right at the peak of the market, before the bubble burst. So businesses will be paying higher rates regardless of whether the multiplier changes.

Also if the small business threshold does not change for many businesses they may go over the £10,000 rent relief threshold.

So what can a business do?

If they are close to the end of their lease they can look for other premises, ones that may be better located or more suitable give knowledge of their business activity. Premises that may result in higher turnover, but may have lower rents due to the landlord being more reasonable - letting at 2010 rates.

They can ensure that they are actually claiming full rates relief entitlement and halve their rates payable. There are loads of small businesses who STILL do not do this. Alternatively, if they are an essential business in a village (Pub, Post Office) they can apply for full rates relief.

They might consider appealing against the rates valuation. To do this they will need to compare their ratable value against others in the area this needs and note whether they are in the right valuation scheme. I.e you may be valued assuming the business has A3 use, but it may no longer be applicable.

If a business does none of these they may have to face the fact that their profits and the technical value of their business will fall.

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31/07/2009 by info.

It is generally accepted that you should sell your business when it is doing well rather than when it is doing badly. Hence business owners during the recession, unless circumstances have forced them to do so, have delayed putting their business on the market.

Official statistics indicated that for the quarter ended June 2009, the UK was still in recession, however increasingly I now talk to business owners who tell me that for them their turnover has now increased.

So how long would a business owner have to wait to obtain a good price for their business after this recession?

Ideally a business owner should be able to show a number of years of increasing turnover and profitability, however business owners often cannot wait that long, they may be close to retirement age, or simply have to move location.

At this point it would be appropriate to remind the reader that when selling a business an owner is selling the next couple of years profit, so in a way historical information is irrelevant.

Looking at historical financial accounts and making a decision as to a businesses value is like looking at photographs of a potential partner on a dating website when they were a child and making a decision as to whether you would like to meet them!

No, a business should be able to achieve a higher price for their business as soon as they can show that their sales and profitability has improved. So a seller should present to a buyer recent Management Accounts, copies of Vat Returns, Order Books etc showing these improved trading figures.

So the business owner has to prepare their business for sale by providing up to date information if they want to obtain a good price for their business. And as long as they can do this, a Business Transfer Agent should be able to present the business to obtain that good price.

If they do not provide this information they will have to wait for these historical figures to prove that what they are saying is simply not a verbal spin.

Posted in Selling Your Business, The Economy | 1 Comment »

11/05/2009 by info.

Almost unnoticed the FSE100 the share price index of the UK’s largest companies has increased by nearly a third since mid March 2009.

What does this mean in layman’s language, well it means that the value of these companies has increased by nearly a third in a couple of months. Great news if you or your financial advisor recognised the bottom of the market, this however indicates that the worst of the recession is over for these companies.

An increase in the share price means an increase in the value of the company, which indicates that the profitability of that company is increasing.

I would doubt whether the value of these companies were actually that low as markets tend to overshoot as the masses overreact to circumstances.

At the first sign of swine flu the share price of British Airways fell by 20%, I tweeted at the time that surely the value of the company has not decreased by that figure, what has happened? Well the share price has recovered to its previous level after the fear fell away.

The property market in the UK is about at its long-term real house price trend value; however expect the value of property to fall further as the market overshoots due to continued fear. By Winter 2009 you will see real property bargains.

For the prospective small business owner what does it mean? Well now is your chance to make money by buying a business before the masses recognise that the bottom of the recession has been reached as in the few months time by the time that your purchase has completed the recession will be over and you will be best placed to start making money.

The purpose of this is to show that you can take advantage of other people’s overreaction or as Warren Buffett has been quoted as saying, “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”

Perhaps now is the best time to be greedy before others do.

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28/04/2009 by info.

You can often get hold of the wrong end of the stick when looking at statistics.

American listing website for businesses for sale bizbuysell.com have recently issued statistics showing that the average price of a business sold via their website fell by 17%.

A reporter for cnnmoney.com reports that “it’s a lousy time to sell your business” presumably on the basis that if you sell the value of your business will have reduced by 17%.

These business sales however have included an element of distressed sales, and of course if you needed to sell your business because you were not doing as well, you had to be realistic with your expectations.

They are right with one aspect of the market that is there are fewer businesses being put up for sale. Baby boomers who would normally be looking to retire, are now delaying that decision, due to fear, thoughts that they may not be able to sell their business for top dollar price, or maybe because their investments have reduced elsewhere.

These are the businesses that a lot of businesses buyers would be interested in buying.

The fact is that business buyers are always interested in buying the best businesses, and if you own the best restaurant in your town or city you will STILL be able to sell for a good price.

But are business owners taking the wrong decision in delaying their retirement?

Profits are a function of the enthusiasm that a business owner has about running their business, and if they feel that they have no option but to carry on trading, perhaps they will start to feel resentful and their enthusiasm may start to wane.

It is this phenomenon that may lead to a reduction in the value of their business not the economic conditions.

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09/04/2009 by info.

People are not very good at predicting economic cycles or the depth of those cycles, including supposed expects in their fields.

Sometimes policy makers are the ones who make the misjudgement, the Chancellor of the Exchequer on 24 November 2008 predicted that the growth in the economy in the UK would start in June 2009, now he tells us that he was wrong in that prediction and the depth of the recession was worse than he thought.

A recent report in America suggests that 20% of people think that the economy will improve in the next few months up from 8% last month. Of course the report could have said that 80% of people think that things will stay the same or get worse!

Is this however a good indicator of a recovery? These surveys are good at recognising bandwagon effects nothing more, as if 100% of people think that stocks and shares will increase in price then it will be a self-fulfilling prophecy, as increased demand will mean that prices WILL increase, its simply laws of supply and demand.

Both corporate and personal balance sheets are improving. Evidence suggests that people are repaying debt rather than spending money increasing their net worth, and when they feel confident that the economy has bottomed out they will start to consider spending or investing again.

The majority of us however will miss the boat, as the people who called the bottom of the property and stock market, and dared to invested at that time, will be the ones who benefit from the bandwagon effect not those who waited for indicators to show them that it was the right time to invest.

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30/03/2009 by info.

Buyers often ask me what is a good business to buy? The answer is, a good business to buy is the business that suits you in the long term. A business is for life not just for Christmas, a play on a now famous slogan.

The question they really wanted to ask is “What is a good business to buy in a recession?” as they don’t want to have the risk of failure.

Ok so here are a few ideas after 30 minutes thought on a Monday morning:

There is a saying that there are only two certainties in life, death and taxes, so the first category would be to buy a business that regardless of the economic climate people will always need. On the basis that if someone has to eat sure as hell someone has to sell.

Next is to look at the way a person changes their behaviour when they are afraid, so buyers will be more driven by fear than pleasure. So look for the business that reduces peoples fear and loss.

People reduce discretionary spending and substitute that spending. So they may not buy a new car but use a proportion of that money in the maintenance of their existing car.

People may not be able to carry out their preferred plans so look for alternatives, so if they can’t sell their houses they will look to rent them.

Certain people will be in distressed financial situations - due to debt for example, so look for a business that helps or is associated with this distress.

I often look back 20 years ago at Films and TV programmes at the technology that was in use then, how they have changed in such a short period of time. So you should be looking at existing businesses and seeing how new applications or technology can improve that business.

You should always be looking for products that are on the upward slope of their Product Life Cycle, there is still growth in that market. And if you are really just looking for something to do before the economic boom starts, perhaps you can look for products with short life cycles, in other words a fad - to make a quick killing.

Of course some people will never start in business due to fear, the pure fact that you have taken that step means that you have a much greater chance of being successful in a recession. “We only have one thing to fear and that’s fear itself” as FDR said in his inaugural address.

So what are you waiting for there’s plenty of opportunities out there!

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18/03/2009 by info.

Life and Business Coaches are taught that if someone makes a negative comment that that comment should be reframed. Reframing is simply changing the meaning of an event or experience. The same way that placing a picture in a different picture frame somehow changes the look of it.

So today it was announced that unemployment has passed two million barrier in the UK. Now I am not suggesting that this is not a stressful situation. However perhaps being made redundant is a blessing in disguise for some of those people, allowing them to move on from a job that they hated and towards something much more rewarding such as running their own a business.

Speak to thousands of self-employed people and business owners and they will tell you that being their own boss was the best thing they ever did. Just because someone may have been made redundant at the age of 55 it doesn’t mean to say that their working life is over.

In fact the vast majority of business buyers are between the ages of 45 – 55 exactly the age when employers start to discount them in the recruitment process. This age group however has significant life experiences and plenty of transferable skills, together with the training that is offered by a seller of a business; this often equals a recipe for success.

So for anyone who has recently been made redundant the best thing you can do, if you have funds, is to think about of buying or establishing your own business. At least you can then be guaranteed that you will never be made redundant again.

Posted in Buyers, The Economy, General | No Comments »

06/03/2009 by info.

Imagine you are driving along the motorway, the road is clear and you can drive safely at 70 mph without any trouble.

Now image trying to drive at that speed in rush hour traffic, what often happens is that someone gets concerned about whether they are too close to the car in front, they apply their brakes, you are not sure about how quickly they are slowing down and you apply your brakes. This creates a pulse and leads to all the cars on the motorway coming to a halt.

This could be used as an analogy for the recession, as there were simply too many businesses trading, leading to inflation. The brakes were applied and everything stopped, in fact there has been a big crash.

So now the Bank of England has further reduced base rates and has decided to take the route of quantitative easing. Quantitative easing without being too technical is the creation of new money out of ‘thin air’ by a central bank, its injection into the banking system, which allow the bank to technically lend the money to others. It is the same as creating another lane on the motorway.

It is now hoped that all of the cars on the road can continue along their journey simply by some of them taking the new lane on the motorway, or having access to this new money.

But wait it was the banks who were policing this motorway in the first place, the motorway grinded to a halt because they gave money for everyone to buy old cars, and then feasted on hamburgers and pizza on the hard shoulder out of their profits.

It these same banks do not lend this new money, and let people move into this new lane then the economy will remain blocked.

What is needed is for the banks to use a great deal of business acumen, being able to recognise the businesses that should survive and the businesses/old cars that should be scrapped.

Do the chief executives of the banks and your bank manager have this business acumen? To recognise a good business opportunity when it is presented to them? Some of them couldn’t even run their own business. So we will see.

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12/02/2009 by info.

I will make a number of predictions with the risk of appearing a doom monger.

1. Some larger companies will be desperately trying to sell smaller subsidiaries, or they will be looking for buyers themselves in the next month.

2. There will be a number of well-documented failures of businesses in the next two months.

Why is this?

Well it’s because the quarter day rent payment will be due for payment on 25 March, and these companies will be well aware that they don’t have the money to pay their commitments. Especially given the weather over the last month or so, which will have affected these businesses cash flow.

So you now know this is going to happen we can all get on with our lives. But for the vast majority of people it will scare them and it will change their behaviour in the short term.

I have noticed over the last few years that when bad news is reported the number of enquiries for people wanting to buy businesses either stops or slows down, as people get fearful and worried about their person circumstances. A few days or weeks later enquiries pick up again.

The news media will report these events and report historical statistics and it will probably affect your business in the short term as well.

We have however already lived through these events and survived; your business is still trading and orders are still coming in, but still psychologically we get scared and delay long term planning issues.

Which is why the reporting of bad news is a self-fulfilling prophecy, it is a primeval response to impending danger, and if you stop running your business due to potential threats the chances are that it will affect your profitability.

The reporting of good news therefore is important, as the more good news stories people hear the more they will be inclined to make that large investment in the knowledge that they will not lose money.

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